NRL Ladder Prediction - Revisited

At the start of the season, I tried to predict the ladder. I got it mostly wrong. Here's the final scorecard...



1. ROOSTERS (Prediction: 1st)

What I said:
"With a bunch of talented New Zealanders with hyphenated surnames... it's hard to see how they don't get to 16+ wins, which is usually enough for the minor premiership."

What They Did:
16 wins wouldn't have got the minor premiership. So the Roosters won 18, including their last 12 in a row. It is their 3rd successive minor premiership.

Verdict:
Nailed it!

1/1


2. BRONCOS (4)

What I said:
"Wayne Bennett will come back to the Broncos and it will fit like a glove."

What They Did:
Wayne Bennett did come back to the Broncos and it fit like a glove.

Verdict:
They probably did 2-3 wins better than expected, but I think this counts as a correct prediction as I got the overall improvement.

2/2


3. COWBOYS (6)

What I said:
"They will be very dangerous in the finals... I can't see them being consistent enough to make the top four."

What They Did:
Made the top four.

Verdict:
I did also say I thought they would be less reliant on Thurston and an overall better team, but I didn't see Morgan improving this quickly or Granville emerging. Can't count this one.

2/3


4. STORM (8)

What I said:
"It all hinges on Slater, Cronk and Smith."

What They Did:
Billy Slater got injured, but they found a replacement named Cameron Munster.

Verdict:
Now they just need to find a replacement for Cronk and Smith and they're set for another decade!

2/4


5. BULLDOGS (10)

What I said:
"History suggests the Bulldogs won't be the only finals team from last year to miss out, but I think they are the most likely..."

What They Did:
Made the finals, although they looked shaky most of the season before winning their last five to get home comfortably.

Verdict:
Great tip for the first 80% of the season.

2/5


6. SHARKS (13)

What I said:
"Lots of hope this year... I don't believe the hype... ultimately the main barrier to success for the Sharks is that they are still the Sharks."

What They Did:
They were winless after four, then improbably rose to the top four - even as their points differential remained negative - before derping to a last round loss to miss the top four double chance.

Verdict:
Points differential and last round result suggest Sharks are still the Sharks, but the wins column says not Sharky enough to count this as a correct prediction.

2/6


7. RABBITOHS (5)

What I said:
"Important to not read too much into the prediction position - remember with one less win last year Souths would've been 5th then too [when they won the comp]."

What They Did:
Had two less wins to come 7th.

Verdict:
Only missed the extra win because Luke got multiple suspensions and Inglis injured at the back end.

3/7


8. DRAGONS (11)

What I said:
"People seem even more down on the Dragons than last year... I think they should at least match last season."

What They Did:
At least matched last season - one win more to make up the numbers in the finals.

Verdict:
I got this, although for awhile it seemed the Dragons were going to be way more successful than even the most optimistic supporter would've predicted.

4/8


9. SEA EAGLES (3)

What I said:
"The consensus seems to be that the Sea Eagles are busted... I think reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated."

What They Did:
Had 8 wins from 12 in the second half of the year, unfortunately for my predictions their first half was abysmal.

Verdict:
Late season charge made this tip look less bad, but it was bad. The consensus is normally the consensus for a reason.

4/9


10. RAIDERS (15)

What I said:
"I think they'll be dire this year... If you asked me to nominate a player most likely to be unable to sign a deal in the NRL age 27, go to Super League and win Man of Steel, it would be Austin. That is not a compliment."

What They Did:
Weren't quite dire, but were inconsistent and not really a contender

Verdict:
Might have counted this except for how hilariously wrong I was about Blake Austin.

4/10


11. PANTHERS (2)

What I said:
"They came 4th last year, with an injury toll longer than the trip from the CBD to the foot of the mountains in afternoon peak hour."

What They Did:
Got an even longer injury toll.

Verdict:
Only avoided the wooden spoon by winning their last game. Definitely awarded my wooden spoon for worst prediction.

4/11


12. EELS (14)

What I said:
"The problem is their best player just signed for the San Francisco 49ers... his absence may hinder the effectiveness of Sandow, who was quietly very good last year... the difference between making the finals and contending for the wooden spoon."

What They Did:
Pretty much as above - only a five week period where they had 3 wins and 2 byes saved them further spoon scrutiny. Still only finished one win away. Oh, and Sandow is now playing for Warrington.

Verdict:
Killing it like Hayne in the NFL

5/12


13. WARRIORS (9)

What I said:
"I'm probably more down on the Warriors than most... they remind me of the Cowboys... [may never] be a consistent team contending for the minor premiership."

What They Did:
Were inconsistently heading for the bottom half of the finals, until Johnson got injured and they lost their last eight.

Verdict:
Well I was down on them and with the way they fell apart when their star half got injured they certainly looked like the Cowboys.

6/13


14. TITANS (16)

What I said:
"I had them penciled in for last before the cocaine supply debacle. Now it's a lock."

What They Did:
Had the worst defense and points differential, but still managed one more win than last.

Verdict:
I almost counted this as correct but after giving myself the Warriors I couldn't make the stretch twice in a row.

6/14


15. TIGERS (12)

What I said:
"...the Tigers best quality is potential, while their worst is current ability. Aside from the great Robbie Farah of course."

What They Did:
Didn't quite unleash their full potential. Farah was poor, although not poor enough to play NSW Cup next year.

Verdict:
Dysfunctional

6/15


16. KNIGHTS (7)

What I said:
At least one team will break into the eight... I think the Knights are most likely... Mullen will eventually stay fit for a full season.

What They Did:
Won their first four games to lead the comp. Then won their next four games... of 20. Mullen got injured.

Verdict:
Mullen must be one of the most underrated and injury prone players in the NRL.

FINAL SCORE: 6/16