I do not have a very good track record at this: 2016, 2015. Here are the results...
1. Melbourne Storm (Prediction: 1st)
What I Said:
"I've given up thinking the Storm will experience a gradual decline as Smith and Cronk get older... Should get at least 16 wins."
What They Did:
20 wins is the most in a regular season since... the Storm in 2007. They have been a very good team for a very long time, with no end in sight.
Verdict:
Just pencil them in for the top four forever.
1/1
2. Sydney Roosters (11)
What I Said:
"From what I've read, they seem like a consensus finals pick, and I don't get it."
What They Did:
Easily made the finals.
Verdict:
I underestimated how much Pearce pretending to have sex with a dog affected their 2016 season.
1/2
3. Brisbane Broncos (8)
What I Said:
"This seems low, but the State of Origin period is going to get them."
What They Did:
Split the difference (3 wins, 3 losses) through the Origin and byes, which is about two more wins than I would've predicted for that period. Those extra two wins is the difference between 3rd and 8th.
Verdict:
I'm reaching.
1/3
4. Parramatta Eels (4)
What I Said:
"Last season the Eels were deducted 12 points for breaching the salary cap... And they still won enough games where if you gave them the 12 points back they make the finals. I think they are legit."
What They Did:
Proved me right!
Verdict:
I feel like I should be given double points for this call. It's so good.
2/4
5. Cronulla Sharks (9)
What I Said:
"Last years premiers aren't making the finals, you heard it here first!"
What They Did:
Last years premiers never looked liked missing the eight.
Verdict:
If I was to make an excuse for my prediction, it would be that they have only gone 6-6 over the second half of the season.
2/5
6. Manly Sea Eagles (13)
What I Said:
"They've recruited a lot of quantity but not convinced about quality."
What They Did:
Looked really good for most of the season, and recovered from some late season wobbles with a convincing last round win to make the finals.
Verdict:
Exceeded my expectations. And possibly the salary cap.
2/6
What I Said:
This is a team with potential to win a premiership in the next few seasons, if not this year.
What They Did:
Took awhile to get going, then won 11 of 13 before losing their last two to limp into the finals.
Verdict:
I do think they can win the comp in the next few seasons, but it's a ladder prediction for 2017 and I was a bit bullish.
2/7
What I Said:
With the same core, they should be top four again.
What They Did:
Johnathan Thurston got injured.
Verdict:
Just 3 wins off the top four with the best player in the game out injured... I still can't claim it.
2/8
What I Said:
"At least in 2018 Ben Hunt arrives."
What They Did:
Starting brilliantly - who needs Hunt when you've got Widdop? (I'll take both). Then choked spectacularly to miss the finals.
Verdict:
Wrong. But I wish I was more wrong.
2/9
What I Said:
"It hasn't been a smooth start [pre-season]... Will still go okay."
What They Did:
Went okay, but managed to lose 6 of 7 matches played with a 4 points or less margin to just miss the finals.
Verdict:
This included losing 2 golden point matches to Manly. That's a 4 competition point swing between those two clubs because some idiot 15 years ago decided draws were bad.
2/10
11. Canterbury Bulldogs (10)
What I Said:
"I do this every year, it will be right eventually."
What They Did:
Made me right eventually.
Verdict:
The only thing sweeter than this is the Bulldogs having to offload James Graham to the Dragons because they played fast and loose with the project salary cap increases.
3/11
3/11
What I Said:
"Robbie Farah! Sam Burgess will get better, Inglis can't play worse. The outside backs look thin but centres and wingers don't win you games anyway."
What They Did:
Non-factor! Slightly better and can't play at all due to injury. It turns out centres and wingers do lose you games with crap defense.
Verdict:
I'm really bad at this.
3/12
What I Said:
"With Tuivasa-Sheck back from knee reconstruction, and Foran a few weeks away from returning to the field, the Warriors should start strong and only improve."
What They Did:
Were thereabouts, then Shaun Johnson got injured and they've lost eight in a row (9 pending R26).
Verdict:
Starting to think they'll never come good.
3/13
14. Wests Tigers (14)
14. Wests Tigers (14)
What I Said:
"Tedesco is amazing but I think they struggle across the rest of the park."
What They Did:
Confirmed!
Verdict:
No Tedesco next year but have otherwise recruited pretty well.
4/14
What I Said:
"I was keen on the Titans initially, but they have loads of injuries already and no depth."
What They Did:
Got even more injuries. Also sacked their coach.
Verdict:
Sadly predicting the demise of a Gold Coast sporting team is like shooting fish in a barrel.
5/15
What I Said:
I'm sure they will do better than one win. But still suck.
What They Did:
Were better than one win but still sucked.
Verdict:
Starting to turn the corner, but still suck for now and possibly for next year too.
FINAL SCORE: 6/16
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