Thursday 12 September 2019

NRL Ladder Prediction 2019 - Revisited

Another regular season of NRL is done and it's time to review my NRL predictions! No other rugby league expert is this transparent and accountable!

Previous results are...

2015: 6/16
2016: 5/16
2017: 6/16
2018: 5/16
2019: ????

Hey, it's harder than it looks. I'm hoping for 2019 I can crack 7/16. Let's see...

1. Melbourne Storm (Predicted: 3)

What I Said:
"Just always in the mix."

What They Did:
They weren't "in the mix", they were well above the mix. Easily the best team in 2019.

Verdict: 0/1
Storm too good, again.


2. Sydney Roosters (1)

What I Said:
"...I think they can be back-to-back minor premiers."

What They Did:
1st losers.

Verdict: 0/2
Three wins off the pace is not close enough to give it.



3. South Sydney Rabbitohs (7)

What I Said:
"...but what if the coach swap makes neither team better? ...Souths may suffer from Bennett's less adventurous style."

What They Did:
Had a fast start then suffered from Bennett's less adventurous style....

Verdict: 0/3
...but still finished in the same position with the same number of wins as last season. Unfortunately the (mostly) ladder doesn't lie.


3. Canberra Raiders (15)

What I Said:
"Another season of Ricky Stuart mucking about with the halves. If Jack Wighton to five-eighth... is the answer, you're asking the wrong question.

What They Did:
It was the right question, after all. Wighton was one of the most improved players in 2019.

Verdict: 0/4
It turns out Ricky Stuart knows a bit about playing in the halves. Running out the English forward pack in a club competition is pretty handy too.


5. Parramatta Eels (13)

What I Said:
"Won't be worse than last year, but won't be much better either."

What They Did:
They were much better.

Verdict: 0/5
This is not going well.


6. Manly Sea Eagles (5)

What I Said:
"...three factors: ...quality of their spine ...returning coach ...There's always a team or two that goes better than expected, so why not Manly?"

What They Did:
Went better than expected thanks to their quality spine and return coach.

Verdict: 1/6
I should get triple points for this, find someone besides me who saw this coming (and is not a Manly supporter).


7. Cronulla Sharks (4)

What I Said:
"Shambolic off the field... but look the good on it."

What They Did:
A bit shambolic on the field too. Managed to lose five (5!) games where they scored more tries than their opponents.

Verdict: 2/7
I'm giving this, as if they could kick goals they finish as high as equal 2nd, so 4th seems on the money with even normal kicking luck.


8. Brisbane Broncos (6)

What I Said:
"...but what if the coach swap makes neither team better? The Broncos still lack a proper organiser in the halves.

What They Did:
One of their halves is playing fullback and the other was released to the Warriors mid-season. The new halves are a washed-up fullback and reserve hooker.

Verdict: 3/8
Basically a 2-for-1 deal with the Souths prediction, but this half was actually correct.


9. Wests Tigers (14)

What I Said:
"Last year, I really liked their coach. This year, not so much."

What They Did:
Ran a bit better than last year and then, in classic Tigers fashion, failed to win a must-win home game to make the finals.

Verdict: 3/9
I really underrated a premiership winning coach. Whoops!



10. Penrith Panthers (2)

What I Said:
"The five year plan is coming to fruition... after eight years!"

What They Did:
The five year plan may take nine years.

Verdict: 3/10
It may take ninety years at this rate.


11. Newcastle Knights (8)

What I Said:
"...should make the eight... just! The combinations will take time. I'm not sure Ponga from fullback to five-eighth is a good move."

What They Did:
Well, the combinations took some time, but after a slow start and Ponga switching back to fullback, the Knights looked dead certs for the finals... until they tanked on their coach and the town.

Verdict: 3/11
This was looking like genius until Ponga went out for nice strawberry thickshakes.


12. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (16)

What I Said:
"Honestly, the Bulldogs seem to have been the worst team over the last two seasons, yet finished 11th and 12th... eventually they have to play to their true inabilities."

What They Did:
Looked like the worst team for most of the season, yet finished 12th.

Verdict: 3/12
Next year they'll win the comp.


13. New Zealand Warriors (12)

What I Said:
"...they've gone back to their original jerseys, and I think that's worth a few wins!"

What They Did:
Was worth a few wins!

Verdict: 4/13
Hard to say what's more important to Warriors success - RTS, or retro jerseys.


14. North Queensland Cowboys (11)

What I Said:
"All that's changed is they've lost Thurston and got Morgan returning from injury. It seems, at best, a sideways move. They might have the worst backline in the comp."

What They Did:
If 2018 to 2019 was anymore sideways, they'd be called the North Queensland Mudcrabs, amirite?

Verdict: 5/14
Also the backline was trash.


15. St. George-ILLAWARRA Dragons (10)

What I Said:
"They're in danger."

What They Did:
I think what best sums up their season is they re-signed their coach with a 3-2 record, and then went 5-14 for the rest of the year.

Verdict: 5/15
Allan Langer was right... St. George can't play  It's so bad they've asked Phil Gould to conduct a review that will recommend a 37 year plan, no doubt.


16. Gold Coast Titans (9)

What I Said:
"I have a feeling they'll fly under the radar and do okay."

What They Did:
The Gold Coast Titans were not okay.

Verdict: 5/16
There's always 2020.

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