This is my fifth year of predicting the NRL final table. And after four years of failure, I think I've got this now!
There is lots of talk of the Roosters being the first back-to-back premiers in more than a quarter of a century. I'm not sure about that, but do I think they can be back-to-back minor premiers.
2. Penrith Panthers (5)
The five year plan is coming to fruition... after eight years! The Panthers have a really good team, and most importantly, the off-season atrocities were limited to fringe players.
3. Melbourne Storm (2)
Just always in the mix.
4. Cronulla Sharks (4)
Shambolic off the field - lost their coach, part of their salary cap, their star player to the NFL... but still look the goods on it. I think they will bunker down amidst the controversy and will benefit from recruiting Shaun Johnson. It's exciting to see how he goes not running a team, but just running!
5. Manly Sea Eagles (15)
This is really a vote for three factors:
- The quality of their spine - Tommy Turbo, DCE and Koroisau
- Returning coach Des Hasler (back-loading) a miracle.
- There's always a team or two that goes way better than expected, so why not Manly?
6. Brisbane Broncos (6)
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs (3)
So, everyone is big on Brisbane and Souths, but what if the coach swap makes neither team better? The Broncos still lack a proper organiser in the halves, and Souths may suffer from Bennett's less adventurous style.
8. Newcastle Knights (11)
They recruited extremely well and should make the eight.... just! The combinations will take time. I'm not Ponga from fullback to five-eighth is a good move, but I guess he could be the first player since Lockyer to pull it off...
9. Gold Coast Titans (14)
I just have a feeling they'll fly under-the-radar and do okay.
10. St. George-ILLAWARRA Dragons (7)
The Dragons normally start fast and fade. This year they have a star forward in court with the NRL, and one side of their defence has more holes than a block of swiss cheese. I don't think Widdop moving to fullback is anything more than a zero sum game. They're in danger.
11. North Queensland Cowboys (13)
All that's changed is they've lost Thurston and got Morgan returning from injury. It seems, at best, a sideways move. They might have the worst backline in the comp - no quality second half, no fullback. no centres of note. The forwards are strong, and McGuire is a good signing, but he pushes Jason Taumalolo wide. Is The Other JT playing wide better than wrecking teams up the middle?
12. New Zealand Warriors (8)
When they lost Johnson too late to find a replacement, I thought they'd be a dumpster fire, but they've gone back to their original jerseys, and I think that's worth a few wins!
13. Parramatta Eels (16)
Won't be worse than last year, but won't be good either. There are big wraps on rookie half Dylan Brown, but I think a lot can go wrong for an 18-year-old half feeling his way into first grade for the worst managed team of the last decade. Seriously, pray for Brown.
14. Wests Tigers (9)
Last year, I really liked their coach. This year, not so much.
Another season, another year of Ricky Stuart mucking about with the halves. If Jack Wighton to five-eighth, and trying to sign an English halfback for 2020, is the answer, you're asking the wrong question.
16. Canterbury Bulldogs (12)
Honestly, the Bulldogs seem to have been the worst team over the last two seasons, yet finished 11th and 12th. They just find a way to win, sometimes. Eventually they have to play to their true inabilities.
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