NRL Ladder Prediction 2016

National Random League. amirite!?!

At the beginning of the last NRL season, I tried to predict the final ladder positions.

It didn't go well.

But I'm coming into this new competition after training well all off-season, and I think I can turn it around if I take it one team prediction at a time.

Also, if things go badly I'll just blame the refs.

So here are the best 2016 predictions you will ever read...



1. Brisbane Broncos (Last Year Position: 2)
The only notable change to the side that made the Grand Final last season is that Justin Hodges retired, but then he was replaced in the off-season by probably the most exciting young centre in the competition in James Roberts. The Roberts signing continued the Broncos long-standing tradition of not only monopolising the largest junior base in the country, but also stealing a bunch of players developed by other teams in dubious circumstances. See also, Anthony Milford.

The Broncos are also stacked with State of Origin all-stars and never fail to re-sign players they want to keep. Yet they still fit under the salary cap through the same magic that saw former club director Andrew Gee find $300,000 between the couch cushions at the Leagues Club.

It is this unique combination of great forward depth, explosive halves that won't play Origin unless Queensland have an injury crisis, and alleged systemic unchecked cheating that means the Broncos should easily win the minor premiership this season.


2. South Sydney Rabbitohs (7)
Everyone seems down on Souths, but I'm on board big time. I think a fully-fit Adam Reynolds and the return of Sam Burgess adds two to three wins to this team.

The loss of Issac Luke is a blow, but perhaps not as big as initially anticipated. Luke is getting old and has so many judiciary priors that every time he looks at a ref with a sideways glance he gets suspended for a month. His replacements at hooker have looked good in limited appearances.


3. North Queensland Cowboys (3)
The NRL champions look set to play the exact same 17 in first round of the season as they did in their Grand Final win. I doubt that's ever happened. The continuity is a positive for the Cowboys, but it also reflects that they haven't recruited at all to strengthen their squad. Depth could be a problem if they have a bad run with injuries. And if Johnathan Thurston is one of the injured, all bets are off.

This is definitely a team that can win the competition again, but they aren't as resilient as some of the other top sides.


4. Cronulla Sharks (6)
The Sharks were one win from the top four last season, and this year they have proper halves! The challenge for James Maloney and Chad Townsend (who I think is a bit underrated) will be keeping the ball off Paul Gallen in attacking areas.

If they can do this, this is a team that can hit 15 wins before being totally overwhelmed in the finals.


5. New Zealand Warriors (13)
The Warriors were headed for the finals last year before Shaun Johnson got injured. They have added Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Issac Luke to their ranks - if they don't have the best spine (fullback-halves-hooker) combination, it's definitely the most exciting.

I expect them to start slowly as they develop combinations, and I also think the toll travelling across the Tasman every second week for away games takes on them makes it difficult to sustain the form to win a minor premiership. But they should be up there and be a very scary team to face in the finals.


6. Manly Sea Eagles (9)
I thought I was being brave picking them for 6th place, but they are somehow 4th favourites to win the premiership! I think that's a big overreaction to improving their forward pack, especially as their rebuild also has some risks - they have replaced an international five-eighth with a centre very late in the off-season, and replaced a very successful coach with a rookie.

The success or failure of the 2016 Sea Eagles rests on halfback Daly Cherry-Evans shoulders - Geoff Toovey is gone, Kieran Foran is gone, some old forwards are gone, and he got his contract for one zillion dollars over eleventy years. Now he only has to take his game to the next level to justify the turmoil. No player should be under more pressure this season.


7. Melbourne Storm (4)
I always thought that at some point Cameron Smith or Cooper Cronk would get seriously injured and the Storm have a terrible season as a result. It's never really happened. Instead, it appears age might catch up to them (and Billy Slater) first.

I think, for the first time in over a decade, the Storm will be on the fringes of finals footy simply because their players aren't good enough.  


8. Penrith Panthers (11)
There are big question marks in the halves around whether Jamie Soward and/or Peter Wallace are finished, and whether Matt Moylan and/or Te Maire Martin are ready to fill their boots. I think there is a strong case to take the risk on youth - even if it costs them some wins this year, they'll likely benefit down the track.

Whatever path they take, I'm still confident on them improving this year. Their injury toll can't be possibly be as bad this season as last seasons, and the forward pack looks dynamic, especially for reduced interchanges.


9. Canberra Raiders (10)
This is an exciting Raiders team. It's nowhere near the Green Machine of the early 1990's, but it could surpass the underrated and probably forgotten Super Mac teams of the early 2000's. The spine has a lot of potential - all four players could yet improve this year.

Against this, coach Ricky Stuart has one season with a winning record since 2004.


10. Canterbury Bulldogs (5)
I don't think the Bulldogs will be bad, I just think there are a lot of what-ifs with this team. Their forward pack is very big, and there are now two less interchanges each game. Their halves comprise a rookie and a guy always getting suspended for doing dumb things. They already have injury concerns in the outside backs involving key players.

It wouldn't surprise me to see them make the finals again, but I can also easily see them missing. The difference between 5th and 10th might be two wins. Last season, the Bulldogs needed to win their last five in a row to get to 5th. If they don't lift again, they don't make it this time.


11. Newcastle Knights (16)
The Knights won their first four last season, then Jarrod Mullen got injured and they won four of the next 20. Mullen should have better luck with injuries this time, and if he doesn't, new signing Trent Hodkinson will make the team more resilient in his absence.

I like their new coach - not because Nathan Brown is ex-Dragins, but because in recent years successful Super League coaches have had immediate success in the NRL - and I like their young players. I think they are a sleeper team.


12. Parramatta Eels (14)
The Eels have been the worst performed team over the last few years, so naturally they are the one side found to have significantly breached the salary cap. Routine failure must be an expensive process. Anyway, the good news is they now don't look like starting the season with minus four points.

Further good news is I think they have actually recruited reasonably well for once. Their backline looks exciting - should have loads of running in it. The bad news is I still don't think they will be very good.


13. Sydney Roosters (1)
I could see them finishing anywhere, but it's more likely to be near the bottom than the top. They had already lost James Maloney and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck from their spine. They have since lost Mitchell Pearce for anywhere from eight weeks to forever, because he simulated sex with a dog while drunk, a deplorable act unless you are a highly respected former Wallabies captain that actually does it while sober (then I guess it's hilarious private school old boys hijinks). The forward ranks are also thinned by some key injuries too - Boyd Cordner and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves both out for half the season.

This upheaval leaves them very inexperienced in key positions. The replacements looked good in the World Club Challenge, but that was against a team from an inferior competition that had even more players missing from key positions than the Roosters.

Best case, I think they are exciting but inconsistent. Worst case, they are a complete shambles.


14. St. George-Illawarra Dragons (8)
I'm hoping for a reverse jinx here, but the Dragons clearly overachieved last season and I don't have a lot of faith in the seemingly inevitable experiment of moving Josh Dugan to centre.

I can only conclude that anytime you can move your best player from one of the most important positions like fullback, and replace him with the third of fourth best fullback from another club, you just have to do it.


15. Gold Coast Titans (14)
The Titans appear to be the weakest team on paper, but I think they'll do okay. By which I mean they will spring a surprise or two, compete most weeks, and not finish last.

The could also transform into the Gold Coast Bears.


16. Wests Tigers (15)
Initially I was going to write that the only positive news for Tigers fans is that at least Farah will play first grade this year, following a resolution to the standoff where coach Jason Taylor wanted him out to clear some salary cap space. Now he is injured for at least one month. This would make their bizarre decision to recruit Matt Ballin look like a masterstroke, except he is expected to be on the sidelines with injury for even longer.

For the Tigers, Jason Tedesco and Aaron Woods are guns, and Luke Brooks still has potential. Everyone else is dire or inconsequential. I think they will end up with the wooden spoon.