Big Bash League Ladder Prediction

I really didn't care about BBL1 and BBL2, but then BBL3 was on free-to-air television every night for six weeks, and suddenly I found it very interesting. There is probably a lesson there for sport leagues on the margins of mainstream public consiousness – I'm looking at you A-League and Super Rugby.

By BBL4 I'd even decided which of the artificial Sydney-based franchises with ugly uniforms I'd support – go Sixers!

Now I'm so comfortably on the bandwagon I'm going to try and predict the final ladder positions of each team in BBL5, which seems absurd given the unpredictability of Twenty20 cricket and the short length of the regular season. But it can't go worse than my NRL predictions.

ADELAIDE STRIKERS
Finished first last year, then as per Big Bash tradition, lost their home semi-final to the fourth place team.

They lack big names but not underrated quality specialists – Ben Laughlin is the highest wicket taker in BBL history, Craig Simmons slogged Perth to their first title with two ridiculous centuries, and Brad Hodge is a gajillion years old but also the most prolific scorer in Twenty20 history.

Imports are Adil Rashid, replacing previous spin-bowling all-rounder Johan Botha, and recently retired Sri Lankan legend Mahela Jayawardene, a late signing after Kieron Pollard withdrew due to injury.

They should do okay but not sure they have the star power to be minor premiers again.

Prediction: 4th


BRISBANE HEAT
Came last in BBL4 and it probably didn't help that they carried 'Freddie' Flintoff, who was very entertaining but also very much not up to standard five years on from retirement.

This year they have Samuel Badree, rated the world’s best Twenty20 spin bowler, and they would've had Brendon McCallum, except he withdrew after remembering he was supposed to be captaining New Zealand in a Test series. Lendl Simmons replaces.

Amongst the locals, Chris Lynn is a top performer with the bat, and Ben Cutting might be the cleanest hitter in Australian cricket. Alex Doolan and Andrew Fekete are new recruits that will add value.

I don't think they will be last again.

Prediction: 6th


HOBART HURRICANES
The Hurricanes have managed to sign one of the greatest batsmen of all-time in Kumar Sangakkara, and along with the big-hitting and clever-bowling of Darren Sammy, must have the best import combination.

Their Aussies are decent too - Ben Dunk is probably the one to watch. He was the BBL3 player of the season, owns the record OD score in Australia domestic cricket history, and has just scored three Shield centuries in a row.

They also have George Bailey, Tim Paine, Daniel Christian, and clever leggie Cameron Boyce. They've even signed Shaun Tait!

If not the favourites, then definitely my favourite squad for entertainment value.

Prediction: 1st

MELBOURNE RENEGADES
This is the red Melbourne team.

They have ridiculous batting firepower. West Indian duo Chris Gayle and Dwayne Bravo should probably be in the West Indian team instead of playing BBL, amd they also have Aaron Finch, Cameron White and Callum Ferguson.

The bowling looks unconvincing though – Peter Siddle and James Pattinson will be rested, leaving them really reliant on the spin of Xavier Doherty, possibly Nathan Hauritz, and maybe even Gayle. Even if that works it's going to be terrible to watch.

I can't see them challenging with their bowling attack, unless Gayle and Finch often go berzerk at the top of the batting order.

Prediction: 7th


MELBOURNE STARS
The green Melbourne team have made four semi-finals and never won one. BBL3 was the best choke – as undefeated minor premiers they lost to a Hobart team that finished 3-4-1.

The Stars have perhaps the two most explosive and entertaining Twenty20 players on their books in James Faulkner and Glenn ‘Big Show’ Maxwell. Like all cricket fans, I think Maxwell reverse sweeping while batting #3 for Australia is a national disgrace, but him doing it for the Stars is equal parts hilarity and awe.

Oh yeah, they also have the hype-machine Kevin Pietersen. He will probably be outscored by other English import Luke Wright.

Overall, they look decent but I think lack the squad depth of previous seasons.

Prediction: 5th

PERTH SCORCHERS
The Scorchers have won the last two titles.

They have also built the strongest home ground advantage in the league – other teams may have bigger crowds, but probably not as vocal, and certainly not as decked out in replica shirts. It helps they have the only team uniform that isn't completely embarrassing to wear in public.

They will be tested this year as last season regulars Adam Voges, Mitch and Shaun Marsh, and Nathan Coulter-Nile are all going to be regularly unavailable while on national team duty. English imports Michael Carberry and David Willey will need to step up and fill the gaps.

On the other hand, they still have 44-year-old Bradley Hogg. Nobody can pick which way he's going to turn it, and that's just his tongue. His spin bowling is hard to pick too. I believe in Brad.

Prediction: 3rd

SYDNEY SIXERS
Brett Lee’s farewell home game last season was the iconic moment of all seasons to date, and for me, signified the BBL’s transformation from an artificial franchise circus to a legitimate league with passionate fans.

With Lee now retired, they've bought in Jackson Bird. The rest of the squad has a lot of star power. Some won't play like Steve Smith, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood. Others like Doug Bollinger, Sean Abbott, Moises Henriques, Brad Haddin, Ed Cowan and Steve O’Keefe will.

They also signed some kid from Hong Kong. He won't play. The imports are Johan Botha (from Adelaide) and Michael Lumb – neither are huge marketable names but they are underrated and will do a job.

This is the glamour team and I think they'll deliver.

Prediction: 2nd

SYDNEY THUNDER
The Thunder are the perennial cellar dwellers, with three wooden spoons and a next-to-last placing.

The batting relies heavily on three retired guys – import Jacques Kallis, skipper Mike Hussey, and Shane Watson. Plus all the other batsmen are kinda old too. They also play on a slow drop-in wicket at home, so low scores are inevitable.

The bowling looks decent with Pat Cummins, Gurinder Sandhu, Clint McKay, and Fawad Ahmed. Plus West Indian all-rounder Andre Russell.

I just don't know if it's going to overcome their diabolical batting though.

Prediction: 8th


PREDICTED LADDER
1. Hobart Hurricanes
2. Sydney Sixers
3. Perth Scorchers
4. Adelaide Strikers
5. Melbourne Stars
6. Brisbane Heat
7. Melbourne Renegades
8. Sydney Thunder