NRL Ladder Prediction 2016 - Revisted

At the start of the season, I tried to predict the NRL final ladder positions.

Last year, I scored myself just 6 from 16 on predictions. Can I do better this time?

Here's the final scorecard for 2016...


1. STORM (Prediction: 7th)

What I Said:
"...it appears age might catch up to them [Cronk, Smith]... the Storm will be on the fringes of finals footy simply because their players aren't good enough."

What They Did:
Not have age catch up to them.

Verdict:
Predictions are off to a bad start!

0/1


2. RAIDERS (9)

What I Said:
"This is an exciting Raiders team... has a lot of potential... against this, coach Ricky Stuart has one season with a winning record since 2004."

What They Did:
Looked exciting and inconsistent for half the season, then it clicked with 13 wins from 14, including the last ten in a row, as well as the best attacking record by miles.

Verdict:
I used to dislike Ricky Stuart because of coaching underachievement ruining teams, now I dislike him due to coaching overachievement ruining predictions. 

0/2


3. SHARKS (4)

What I Said:
"The Sharks were one win from the top four last season, and this year they have proper halves... this is a team that can hit 15 wins before being totally overwhelmed in the finals."

What They Did:
Made the top four with 15 wins... in a row! Then had an end of season slump, so are right on schedule to be overwhelmed in the finals.

Verdict:
First winner!

1/3


4. COWBOYS (3)

What I Said:
"This is definitely a team that can win the competition again".

What They Did:
They are in the mix, just like last season.

Verdict:
I also pointed out the Cowboys have a virtually identical squad to last season, so predicting them to perform about the same wasn't so hard.

2/4


5. BRONCOS (1)

What I Said:
"It is this unique combination of great forward depth, explosive halves that won't play Origin unless Queensland have an injury crisis, and alleged systemic unchecked cheating that means the Broncos should easily win the minor premiership this season."

What They Did:
Fell apart during the State of Origin series. 

Verdict:
I forgot about that Broncos tradition.

2/5


6. PANTHERS (8)

What I Said:
"There are big question marks in the halves... a strong case to take the risk on youth [Moylan and Martin]... I'm still confident on them improving this year."

What They Did:
Went with youth in the halves, but it's Cleary and Cartwright, not Martin and Moylan.

Verdict:
Wrong players, but right strategy and outcome.

3/6


7. BULLDOGS (10)

What I Said:
"It wouldn't surprise me to see them make the finals again, but I can also easily see them missing."

What They Did:
Make the finals again.

Verdict:
My prediction was a copout - can't count this one.

3/7


8. TITANS (15)

What I Said:
"The Titans appear to be the weakest team on paper, but I think they'll do okay. By which I mean they will spring a surprise or two, compete most weeks, and not finish last."

What They Did:
Sprung a surprise or ten, competed every week, and snuck into the finals.

Verdict:
This is my worst prediction... so far.

3/8


9. TIGERS (16)

What I Said:
"For the Tigers, Jason Tedesco and Aaron Woods are guns, and Luke Brooks still has potential. Everyone else is dire or inconsequential. I think they will end up with the wooden spoon."

What They Did:
A lot more players performed. And Farah ended the season in 2nd grade.

Verdict:
Might've made the finals with Farah.

3/9


10. WARRIORS (5)

What I Said:
"I expect them to start slowly as they develop combinations... But they should be up there and be a very scary team to face in the finals."

What They Did:
Start slowly, never really got faster.

Verdict:
Should be better next season when Tuivasa-Sheck returns from injury.

3/10


11. DRAGONS (14)

What I Said:
"I'm hoping for a reverse jinx here, but the Dragons clearly overachieved last season and I don't have a lot of faith in the seemingly inevitable experiment of moving Josh Dugan to centre."

What They Did:
Stopped overachieving. And the inevitable experiment lasted two weeks.

Verdict:
I feel like everyone but Paul McGregor knew shifting Dugan from fullback was a dumb idea, but I'm still taking credit for the call.

4/11


12. RABBITOHS (2)

What I Said:
"Everyone seems down on Souths, but I'm on board big time."

What They Did:
So it turns out that sometimes common beliefs, like being down on Souths, are common sense. They only got to 12th by winning their last four games. 

Verdict:
This is my new worst prediction... so far.

4/12


13. SEA EAGLES (6)

What I Said:
"I thought I was being brave picking them for 6th place, but they are somehow 4th favourites to win the premiership!"

What They Did:
And then other times common beliefs are plain wrong. The Manly hype was misplaced. They were below average all season.

Verdict:
Next season I really need to learn to tell when the consensus is right, and when it is wrong.

4/13


14. EELS (12)

What I Said:
"The good news is they now don't look like starting the season with minus four points. Further good news is I think they have actually recruited reasonably well for once... The bad news is I still don't think they will be very good."

What They Did:
Were actually very good, but ended up with a twelve point penalty. 

Verdict:
I didn't think they'd lose any points, so I can't give this as the Eels finish 8th without the deduction. 

4/14


15. ROOSTERS (13)

What I Said:
"Best case, I think they are exciting but inconsistent. Worst case, they are a complete shambles."

What They Did:
A complete shambles. Struggled to win games even when their big names came back from injuries and simulating sexual acts with dogs.

Verdict:
Hilarious.

5/15


16. KNIGHTS (11)

What I Said:
"I like their young players. I think they are a sleeper team."


What They Did:
They were definitely asleep all season. The worst performed team since 1993.

Verdict:
I could do this for another fifty years, and never be more wrong.

FINAL SCORE: 5/16