What if I told you an Australian national team had won 10 of 14 World Cups outright, never finished lower than 2nd, and in their last tournament success beat teams by 67, 65, 55 and 37 points. Also their main rivals New Zealand had never finished lower than 3rd, and the other major power in the sport England had never finished lower than 4th. Two other teams had never finished lower than 6th.
But enough about netball, let's get back on topic and into the Official Unofficial Rugby League World Cup Predictions!
With news this week that rugby league is not a sport, but pole dancing and foot golf are, there's never been a better time to be a fan of international rugby league!
Where I predict teams to exit at the same stage of the tournament, I have ranked them by who I think will perform better at that stage. For example, I think that Italy are more chance to win Group D than the United States, so they are ranked higher of the two. Sorry about the spoiler there.
Here are all the other predictions...
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| The engraver is already starting on the 'A'. |
About forty years ago, a gap emerged between Australian and English rugby league, and it has continuously and steadily widened into a chasm to the point where it appears irreversible. The NRL is now to rugby league what the NBA is to basketball, and the Australian Kangaroos are the equivalent of the USA Dream Team. If you have a good imagination, you can conceive England springing an upset in the competition opener this Friday, but by the time the semi-finals and finals come around the well-oiled Australian machine should be in full force and beating the other 'major powers' by 20 or more. The Kangaroos just have too much skill in the key positions - Cronk at halfback, Smith at hooker, Slater at fullback - and even relatively weak spots like front-row and centre present world-class options.
Final - New Zealand (The Kiwis)
There are two opinions on the New Zealand team. One, their chances went up the noses of Jesse Bromwich and Kevin Proctor back in May, or two, their chances disappeared when the best forward in the world Jason Taumalolo opted to represent Tonga instead. New Zealand don't have the depth to cover those three big losses, plus other significant exclusions due to injury. Despite the selection struggles, I think they will get past their Pacific rivals in the pool stage, and probably England in a semi-final. Although if Shaun Johnson struggles for form or with injury an embarrassing early exit is possible. Remember, they did draw with Scotland in 2016.
Semi-Final - England (The Lions)
Wayne Bennett is a legendary coach with many remarkable achievements in the game, but if he
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| Rugby league in England, 2017 |
Semi-Final - Fiji (The Bati)
There has been far greater hype around Tonga, but I think Fiji will narrowly beat them in the quarter-finals to make the top four for the third consecutive World Cup. There team may lack the star power of the other Pacific nations, but the core of their team has played together more regularly, so they should be a more cohesive unit. It's just a shame the Semi Radradra isn't available to compete on the opposite wing to Suliasi Vunivalu. The good news is that the Semi-Trailer appears to be having a lot of fun (and a pretty easy time) playing French rugby:
Quarter-Final - Tonga (Mate Ma'a Tonga)
They already had a strong squad when the defections of Jason Taumalolo and Andrew Fifita turned them into a hype machine. I'm riskily predicting they will bomb - not really challenge New Zealand in the group, then squeak past Samoa to avoid Australia in the quarter-finals, only to lose at that stage to Fiji. Win, lose, or draw, one of the highlights has been the passion of their supporters during a one week training camp in Tonga. A simple motor procession through the villages became a frenetic meet and greet where everyone wore red and women were rolling in the mud (?!)
Quarter-Final - Samoa (Toa Samoa)
I think Samoa really needed the class of Anthony Milford to challenge the big teams. With the Brisbane star out with a shoulder injury, they look really short of class in the halves, as they will be using Ben Roberts instead. Samoa will still be competitive, and their Group B game against Tonga could be one of the matches of the tournament, as well as also determining who avoids Australia in the quarter-finals.
Quarter-Final - Papua New Guinea (The Kumuls)
PNG is the only country in the world where rugby league is the national sport, yet their national team has frequently disappointed in these tournaments. This time they will benefit from a significant part of their squad playing together for the Queensland Cup champion PNG Hunters. It also doesn't hurt that the World Cup organisers appear to have stacked the deck for them. They will play three Northern hemisphere teams in the tropics during the day in the group stages. They should be looking to win all three matches and book a quarter-final appearance against England. England will win that, but will also be wary of the physicality of the Kumuls.
Quarter-Final - Lebanon (The Cedars)
Rugby league in Lebanon has come a long way since their last World Cup appearance in 2000. Then it was a Sydney ex-pat team. Now the Lebanese rugby league has a 15-year-old domestic competition, with a grassroots structure including college and schools tournaments. Their squad contains one player and four reserves from the local competition. With this progress, I think the reward will be a quarter-final appearance. The unnecessarily complicated World Cup draw sees Lebanon play France first, and if they win that match, they will qualify for the quarter-finals in 3rd place in the group. I think they can do it, because while they probably lack the overall depth of the French, in Robbie Farah and Mitchell Moses they will have the two best game-breakers on the park. After that, expect Lebanon to get thrashed by England and Australia in the only two fixtures played in Sydney, before a third thrashing by New Zealand in the quarters.
Group A - France (Les Chanticleers)
French rugby league has a tumultuous history. Starting in 1934 it expanded rapidly and was set to surpass rugby union in club participation at the end of World War II. Then rugby union collaborated with the Nazi-supported Vichy regime to ban the sport, and seize all its money and assets. The sport did survive this forced bankruptcy, known as jeu a treize - which translates to game of thirteen, as the term 'rugby' for rugby league was illegal in France until 1991 - and at times thrived, with the sides of the 1950s particularly amongst the best in the world. But since beating Australia 2-0 in a 1978 series, the French team has made up numbers on the global stage. I expect that will continue here, and predict a shock upset to Lebanon. They will probably run Australia and England closer than the Cedars, but by that stage will have already missed advancing.
Group B - Scotland (The Bravehearts)
The Scots won't have it easy, playing New Zealand, Tonga and Samoa in Group B. But nor will they be easybeats. They are led by the ageless Danny Brough, who orchestrated that a stunning draw against New Zealand just twelve months ago, and have numerous UK Super League regulars in their squad. They also play together more regularly than their Pacific island opposition. I'm not quite predicting they will get through, especially after NSW Country u23's thrashed them last week, exposing their lack of depth when their best players were rested. But I think they will be in the mix.
Group C - Ireland (The Wolfhounds)
While the national team mostly relies on English heritage players, there are now two local players in the squad, which reflects well on the games expansion over the last thirty years, from non-existent to a structure with twenty clubs across three provincial competitions. Group C is perhaps the toughest to predict, and I think they will ultimately get done over by tropical weather as much as the skill of the Kumuls,
Group C - Wales (The Dragons)
There is a fine history of Welsh rugby league converts from union, and the national team has excelled sporadically - as recently as 2000, the side made the semi-finals of the World Cup. They have surprisingly been winless since in the major tournament. I think their three group matches (against PNG, Fiji, and Ireland) are all winnable, but they are most likely to keep their unenviable losing streak alive.
Group D - Italy (The Azzurri)
Italy actually played Australia twice on the 1959-60 Kangaroo tour. The game then died in the country under pressure from rugby authorities, before a revival in Australia in the 1990s led to the foundation of an Italian federation about ten years ago. There is now also an Italian club playing in the stronger French league system, as well as local competition. The national side relies on heritage, with some big NRL names - James Tedesco is going to get a strong platform behind the go-forward of Nathan Brown, Paul Vaughan and Daniel Alvaro. However, there are also two Italian players in the squad, including Mirco Bergamasco, who played 89 rugby union tests before switching codes. They will push Fiji close for quarter-finals qualification.
Group D - United States (The Hawks)
In the 2013 World Cup, the United States shocked everyone by reaching the quarter-finals. It was so momentous, Australia's most successful band recorded a song about it:
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