This is the short version of my Melbourne Cup betting:
And here is the slightly longer take:
I put on two bets.
The first was on Marmelo, the favourite, after I was informed in response to my last blog entry that favourites win 20-30% of the time. Based on that probability I took at face value and didn't independently verify, on average I should see a positive return every 4 to 5 Melbourne Cup's.
The other bet was on Thomas Hobson. I like my horse names to reflect my intelligence (superficially intellectual). So it was a decision between that horse or nothing.
T-Hobbs, as I came to know him, was the horse with the last minute jockey switch I didn't know about until after placing the bet. This makes it the third worst bet I've ever made.
The second worst is the the time at the Harold Park trots I studied the newspaper form guide for ages (maybe 10 mins!), raced to make my bet, and returned to see the horse laying on the track with its buggy on its side and the driver crawling away to safety... on the warmup lap.
The worst is the time I picked a horse at Kembla Grange while at the pub, and it literally jumped the outside rail halfway through the race. I think it is still making its way down the coast for summer holidays on the F6 freeway.
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