Sunday, 2 September 2018

NRL Ladder Prediction 2018 - Revisted

The NRL regular season is finished, which means it's time to review my fearless 2018 predictions.

And yes, along the way I will also score against THE RANDOM LADDER and see who wins!
Pictured: my arch nemesis.
Here are the results...


1. Sydney Roosters (Predicted: 1st)

What I Said:
"I think they are clear favourites for the minor premiership."

What They Did:
Minor premiership on points differential after a last round blitz.

Verdict:
BOOM~!
1/1

Random Ladder (RL): Randomly predicted 13th, what an idiot! 
Rob 1 - 0 RL


2. Melbourne Storm (6)

What I Said:
"It seems foolish to predict them this low..."

What They Did:
Made me look foolish.

Verdict:
The Cronk retirement hasn't slowed them, perhaps the Slater retirement will?
(Probably won't)
1/2

RL: 10th. Rob leads 2-0


3. South Sydney Rabbitohs (14)

What I Said:
"Souths just looks very, very average. And very, very boring."

What They Did:
Looked very, very good. And very, very entertaining.

Verdict:
If Anthony Seibold isn't Coach of the Year, he should be the first non-playing Rookie of the Year.
1/3

RL: 9th. Rob leads 2-1


4. Cronulla Sharks (10)

What I Said:
"Moylan for Maloney is good long-term business, but for this season, it's a downgrade... I predict a downturn." 

What They Did:
Part of a four-way tie for the minor premiership.

Verdict:
I don't think that's a downturn, although the Moylan part was right.
1/4

RL: 5th. Tied 2-2


5. Penrith Panthers (5)

What I Said:
"In favour... James Maloney makes every team better. Against... something awry with their coaching and/or management structures."

What They Did:
Maloney made them better, and they sacked their coach when in the top four.

Verdict:
Everything about this was so correct that it should be worth double.
2/5

RL: 16th. Rob leads 3-2


6. Brisbane Broncos (4)

What I Said:
"...hard to see them not being up there... should be less affected by State of Origin than usual." 

What They Did:
They struggled early, but a winning streak during Origin saw them enter the top eight and they never looked back.

Verdict:
Only one win off 4th. I'd give a point here if they hadn't looked like the worst team in the eight for most of the season.
2/6

RL: 7th. Tied 3-3


7. St. George-ILLAWARRA Dragons (7)

What I Said:
"...only need one more than last season to fulfil this prediction - the acquisition of Graham (and Hunt) should add at least that."

What They Did:
Dominated the first 2/3rds of the comp, then faded badly.

Verdict:
Faded badly to the exact position I predicted that is!
3/7

RL: 15th. Rob leads 4-3


8. New Zealand Warriors (9)

What I Said:
"The Warriors seem the most common team the experts have in the wooden spoon position. Well, not this expert!"

What They Did:
Were in the top eight all season, along with the Panthers and Dragons.

Verdict:
In a typical season, I'd count this. But this year the gap between 8th and 9th is three times larger than 8th to 1st.
3/8

RL: 6th. Rob leads 5-3


9. Wests Tigers (12)

What I Said:
"I like their coach... But they still have a weak squad..."

What They Did:
Were in the top eight for the first half of the season, and looked most likely to get back in the second half of the season.

Verdict:
I really like their coach.
3/9

RL: 14th. Rob leads 6-3


10. Canberra Raiders (16)

What I Said:
"I think it's all over for the Green Machine."

What They Did:
Were competitive, but the Canberra Faders lost a bunch of close games once again.

Verdict:
Did better than I expected.
3/10

RL: 1st. 
(Did much worse than the Random Ladder expected)
Rob leads 7-3


11. Newcastle Knights (11)

What I Said:
"Even with the unexpected acquisition of Pearce topping off a decent rebuilding campaign, I think falling just short of the finals is most likely."

What They Did:
Six wins is more than just short, but if Pearce doesn't tear his pec and miss the middle of the season...

Verdict:
I got the position right anyway, the words aren't important.
4/11

RL: 12th. Rob leads 8-3


12. Canterbury Bulldogs (15)

What I Said:
"...Bulldogs fans will be hoping former Parramatta Eels hero Dean Pay can revive the clubs fortunes."

What They Did:
Looked like the worst team most of the season, despite never quite being last on the ladder. Then a bunch of rookies led them to a respectable finish.

Verdict:
Not sure they can rise this far above expectations again.
4/12

RL: 3rd. Rob leads 9-3 and can't be beaten from here, proving forever that he is more expert than a randomly generated ladder.


13. North Queensland Cowboys (3)

What I Said:
"...they are my early favourites to win on Grand Final day."

What They Did:
Were in last place with two weeks to go, then the JT farewell tour kicked into gear.

Verdict:
So wrong, but nobody saw this coming.
4/13

RL: 8th. Rob leads 9-4


14. Gold Coast Titans (8)

What I Said:
"It may seem crazy to have them this high, but... <long explanation on how the Titans might turn it around>.

What They Did:
I should've left out the "but".

Verdict:
Don't believe the real NRL champions hype.
4/14

RL: 4th. Rob leads 10-4


15. Manly Sea Eagles (13)

What I Said:
"And when the music stopped, the Sea Eagles were left without a half to replace Green. And it's not their only gap."

What They Did:
Well, Green helped the Warriors make the finals. And the Sea Eagles played like a team with a lot of gaps.

Verdict:
One win off 13th, I'm giving it.
5/15

RL: 2nd. Rob leads 11-4


16. Parramatta Eels (2)

What I Said:
"I predicted Parramatta to finish 4th last year! And I'm all-in this year too!"

What They Did:
Last or equal last all season.

Verdict:
2017 Eels was one of my best every predictions, 2018 Eels was one of my worst.
FINAL SCORE: 5/16

RL: 11th. Rob wins 11-5!

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