SPILL! SPILL! SPILL!!!

#LIBSPILL 2018

Like a B-grade horror movie, it's ugly and violent and terrible, yet you can't look away.

WATCH OUT, HE'S BEHIND YOU

Like the Melbourne Cup, it's the race that stops the nation, but in this case the cruelty to big, dumb animals is welcomed.

The following is completely apolitical - I'm not taking sides.

I'm simply treating all players with the respect they deserve, and scoring the week like a 12-round boxing match. But instead of three minute rounds, they go for about three hours.

It's the Moderates versus the Conservatives, the Broad Church EXPLODES~! It's Malcolm "President Trumble" Turnbull versus Peter "The Potato" Dutton, WHO WILL WIN?!

(It is actually Scott Morrison that wins, who is somehow both moderate and conservative. But we will get to that later.)

So, having said all that...

ROUND 1 (Tuesday morning)
The hype settles and the leadership challenge IS ON! Snap spill... Turnbull 48 - Dutton 35, and Dutton resigns from cabinet. A lot of energy expelled in that opening offensive flurry though.

Round/Fight Score: Moderates 10 - Conservatives 9

ROUND 2 (Tuesday afternoon)
Backbencher Dutton gives a job interview masquerading as a press conference. He can smile more now!

Eh, maybe don't?

The smiling assassin is clearly dictating the pace of the fight, and Turnbull doesn't take back control with an uninspiring defense of his leadership in Question Time by himself and others.

Round: Con 10 - 9
Fight: Tied 19-19

The resignation of this
 person nobody knows was
 obviously a huge blow.

ROUND 3 (Tuesday evening)
Everyone begins offering their resignations. Only one accepted so far.

Round: Con 10 - 9
Fight: Con 29 - 28

ROUND 4 (Wednesday morning)
Dutton's quest to project a personality people might like continues with a soft interview on Triple M, which he fucks up by being unable to name a favorite AC\DC song. Just say Thunderstruck, idiot. But he's still on the front foot.

Round: Con 10 - 9
Fight: Con 39 - 37

ROUND 5 (Wednesday afternoon)
Some nice counter-punching with a Turnbull/Morrison/Cormann press conference showing unity, followed by doubts about Dutton's eligibility to stand in parliament. It turns out having a Trust that rakes in millions of dollars in childcare subsidies while working for the government paying those subsidies could possibly be a conflict of interest. Who knew?!

Round: Mod 10 - 9
Fight: Con 48 - 47

ROUND 6 (Wednesday evening)
A petition to force a second meeting for a leadership challenge is circulated, and there a couple more resignations from cabinet.

Round: Con 10 - 9
Fight: Con 58 - 56

ROUND 7 (Thursday morning)
Dutton requests a second meeting, Turnbull be like "show me the 43 signatures"... attack and defense, cat and mouse, then BANG~! Cormann, Fifield and Cash call a press conference to switch sides to Dutton. Turnbull is down and out, he gets up, but the Moderate side is on the ropes as the round ends with a flurry of cabinet resignations.

Round: Con 10 - 8
Fight: Con 68 - 64

ROUND 8 (Thursday afternoon)
Desperate counter-attack as Turnbull still wants to see the signatures, biding time for alternative challengers (Morrison definitely, Bishop maybe). He throws shade at Dutton's eligibility to sit in parliament, while also suggesting he will resign from parliament if ousted. That would force a by-election, potentially leaving the Libs without a majority to govern.

It's fine counter-punching that almost makes it seem like having to suspend QT in the House of Reps while having three Senate front-benchers cover roughly 74 ministerial portfolios isn't a complete embarrassment. 

Round: Mod 10 -  9
Fight: Con 77 - 74

ROUND 9 (Thursday evening)
Signature count: about 40.

Round: Con 10 - 9
Fight: Con 87 - 83

ROUND 10 (Friday morning)
We get to 43 signatures, but they aren't all in the Dutton camp. Some moderates sign, just wanting a resolution. The conservative aggression is slowing. It slows further when Turnbull and the party whips take a looong time to verify the signatures of their colleagues they've known for years are legitimate.

Round: Mod 10 - 9
Fight: Con 96 - Mod 93

ROUND 11 (Friday afternoon)
SPILL! 45 - 40!

Bishop exits the race in the first round of voting, and then... Morrison 45 - Dutton 40!

Dutton and the Conservatives were the aggressors for most of the fight, but miscalculated their numbers and suffered a stunning knockout in the penultimate round. Turnbull may not be Prime Minister, but he did enough to ensure the next leader was who he wanted.

Result: Moderates win by Knockout (11th Round)

Post-fight, most pundits seem happy that the winner is not the conservative Dutton, but the marginally less-conservative Morrison.

The consensus is that Morrison will be a stable and sensible leader, which seems to forget that he once bought a lump of coal into Question Time, like a deranged Ebenezer Scrooge.

The best PM option we have. No, seriously.

And as for Turnbull? Well, he was seen putting back on his faded leather jacket. Then as he left Canberra for the week, possibly for the last time, he yelled out the one thing left to say as he screeched the tyres of his motorcycle...