With the NRL season just under 24 hours away from kicking off, I thought I'd make an attempt at predicting the final ladder.
Last time I tried this somewhat publicly was in 2010 when I ran an email tipping comp with about 25 entrants. I predicted the Sharks as minor premiers. Of course, they finished 14th. And they were fortunate to finish that high - the Storm had all their points deducted for buying Greg Inglis a boat and some other illegalities.
An unkind response to my record would be to suggest the following list has no credibility, but I think it simply highlights how unpredictable the NRL is year-on-year.
In 2010 the Sharks had Ricky Stuart as coach, when people still thought he was good at it, plus experienced halves Kimmorley and Barrett, and had just finished one game from the grand final the previous season. It wasn't a crazy prediction.
Even with last season, it's quickly how fast we forget.
Does anyone remember that all conquering Souths finished only 3rd and with one less win would've been outside the top four? Or that their grand final opponents the Bulldogs were one defeat from missing the finals on points differential after playing terribly for the second half of the comp before getting hot again during the finals? How many people thought the Panthers would make the top eight? (I did... but not the top four.)
If anything I should be shaking things up even more than I do below.
1. Roosters (Last year position: 1)
The best team on paper. I've heard people question how they make it under the cap, but I think it's fairly obvious that a lot of their guns would've been signed before breaking out - Tupou, Tuivasa-Sheck, Friend, Waerea-Hargreaves, Cordner, Guerra, Moa etc. They may not have juniors - in fairness, because they don't have any territory - but they know how to spot and cultivate talent. Add that the Panthers are paying part of Jennings salary, Maloney likely took a discount to return to Sydney, and Ferguson is coming back from being unregistered on the cheap, and the only guy they likely have on huge money is Mitchell Pearce. So unfortunately, I think they are legit. With a bunch of talented New Zealanders with hyphenated surnames and a strong spine that is unlikely to play Origin, it's hard to see how they don't get to 16+ wins, which is usually enough for the minor premiership.
2. Panthers (4)
When Phil Gould isn't on his high horse during commentary arguing that black and white rules are wrong and that the video has been falsified on 3rd referee decisions, he knows his stuff. The way he has tore down and rebuilt the Panthers has been masterful. The investment in youth and identification of cheap talent for recruitment is outstanding. I suspect Ivan Cleary is the best coach in the league without a premiership. They came 4th last year, with an injury toll longer than the trip from the CBD to the foot of the mountains in afternoon peak hour traffic. I'm not sure Soward and Wallace are a premiership halves combo, but they can certainly lead a team to a very high number of wins over a season.
3. Sea Eagles (2)
The consensus seems to be that the Sea Eagles are busted. They had a tired end to last year and rumours of player disharmony are rife. But I think reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated. They still have arguably the best spine in the competition and a lot of quality and depth in the outside backs (which is being heavily tested early this season). They have lost Watmough and Stewart in the forwards, but I don't know how badly that will be felt. Others will step up to make the metres and tackles. Perhaps not with the same explosiveness as Watmough, but perhaps not with the same errors and ill-discipline as well. And perhaps not with the same guile and creativity as Stewart, but perhaps with more reliability on fitness. Whatever happens I know one thing - there's gotta be an investigation into this!
4. Broncos (8)
Wayne Bennett will come back to the Broncos and it will fit like a glove. Like the Dragons in 2010, they'll wear everyone down with their never-ending stream of big units hitting hard and making metres, have the halves scheme behind them and implement a solid kicking game, run the same boring and predictable double decoy fullback sweep play with Kahu and then Boyd over and over, and have Hodges provide the additional x-factor out wide like Gasnier did when he returned.
5. Rabbitohs (3)
Important to not read too much into this predicted position - remember with one less win last year Souths would've been 5th then too. That's normal variance, not a regression. They will miss Sam Burgess, but they have two younger models that will still keep them going forward. I'm hearing a lot about their weakness on one side with Reddy and Goodwin, to which I'd make three counterpoints. Firstly, Reddy and Goodwin are unspectacular but decent enough - Bryson defends solidly, Reddy can finish. Secondly, Souths have such a logjam of young speedsters that they can replaced by the likes of Millard or Gray later in the season if they don't perform. Thirdly, and most importantly, when do centres and wingers really matter? Nobody has won a comp because they had the best outside backs in the modern era. Ever. So Souths are still a very dangerous team that is a chance to fight recent history and win back-to-back premierships.
6. Cowboys (5)
The good news for the Cowboys is that with Lui organising, Morgan getting better and better, and Coote waiting in the wings, the Cowboys are slightly less reliant on JT to win. The bad news is they still are very reliant on him. They will be very dangerous in the finals, but over the course of a season, I can't see them being consistent enough to make the top four. I just hope if they lose the finals it's a real controversy like the hilarious 7th tackle, not some fabricated rubbish like falling 30-0 behind and then missing your slim hopes of a comeback due to a knock-on being called correctly.
7. Knights (12)
At least one team will break into the eight, and history suggests it should actually be two or three teams. I'm not brave enough to pick that many, but I think the Knights are most likely to come in from the bottom half. It seems crazy and counter-intuitive given they have downgraded at coach, but Stone appears to have the respect of the players and without Bennett there is less weight of expectation. But the most important factor will be the players know they're going to get paid. The business with Tinkler would've been a major distraction that is now lifted after the NRL stepped in. I also think Gidley's best position is fullback, Mullen will eventually stay fit for a full season, and that Tyrone Roberts is quite underrated.
8. Storm (7)
It all hinges on Slater, Cronk and Smith. If they can stay mostly fit and the rest of the team jags a win or two during Origin they'll do ok and I can't see them missing the finals. But the close to this era is coming soon. There are no secret second contracts to save them.
I'm probably more down on the Warriors than most. I'll concede if I get this wrong, they're more likely to do better than predicted instead of worse. Johnson is a prime candidate to move into the elite player category. Tomkins should be better 2nd year, although it's hard to respect a player with such terrible tattoos, easily the worst ink in the league and there's a lot to choose from. They have a lot of young talent that has been very successful at lower levels, and eventually that should translate into success at the highest levels. I'm just not sure this year is when it clicks. The coach is unproven and the constant travel must take a toll that doesn't affect Sydney teams. They remind me of the Cowboys - perhaps they'll always just sneak in and have to rely on getting hot in September, rather than ever being a consistent team contending for the minor premiership every year.
The Bulldogs made the grand final, but they were 5 wins from 12 games in the second half of the year before the finals run. Hasler is a great coach, but I think they have some serious question marks in key positions. It's a big risk to let Ennis go - his grubbiness detracts from the fact he provides excellent service and organisation from dummy half. Hodkinson is the 3rd best halfback in the team behind Graham and Kasiano, even if he is the best in NSW. Reynolds in now in the territory where a level 1 offence will get him a long ban because of his previous disciplinary issues. Morris at fullback is quick and can find a gap, but I think from watching a lot of the Dragons, he's a limited player. He has never shown any creative or ballplaying ability that the best fullbacks provide - he can't even carry the ball on his left side! History suggests the Bulldogs won't be the only finals team from last year to miss out, but I think they are the most likely and therefore the one I'm prepared to call.
People seem even more down on the Dragons than last year, whereas I think they're in a better spot than 12 months ago. I think they should at least match last season. They have the best spine that won't be in the finals. There are still issues in the forwards with size and power - I never thought I'd rue the day my team didn't pickup 47-year-old Willie Mason - but it can't be worse than last year. The centres and wings are questionable too, but there are some youngsters waiting for an opportunity. Whenever they win it'll be because of the plucky underdog spirit of the Steelers and whenever they lose it'll because the arrogant entitled sentiment Dragons. Either way, oust Doust!
I like Jason Taylor as a coach and the recent media reports about him overhauling the support team and looking at injury management suggest he's a smart operator taking the right steps for the club. But the Tigers best quality is potential, while the worst is current ability. Aside from the great Robbie Farah of course. They have the best NSW Cup halves combo in the comp, and you'd happily blood one of Brooks and Moses in top grade with an experienced half. The two together seems like a recipe for disaster and missed tackles. In the forwards they have lost approximately 3745 backrowers and replaced them with the hope that Curtis Sironen finally stays fit and does the work of three men. I think it will be a long season with some upside moving forward.
Lots of hope for the Sharks this year now that the players have served their three week suspensions for the crime of ASADA hideously botching an investigation. I don't believe the hype. Benjamin Barba should be nicknamed Benjamin Button - but instead of getting younger over time, he is getting less talented as his pay cheques get larger. I don't think he is the answer to the question of, how do you replace a man who pretends to urinate into his own mouth in a public restroom? The Sharks still have loads of quality forwards but they have every other year where they sucked too. Gallen will likely play a lot of games where his stats are amazing but he's actually detracting from the team by injecting himself in situations where he should leave it to others - quantity over quality. He does it for NSW too, where an attacking set will be Gallen and Bird taking hitups! But ultimately the main barrier to success for the Sharks is that they are the Sharks.
I think Brad Arthur is a good coach. Clearly the fact they got Watmough and are strongly tipped to get Foran means he has a lot of respect from his assistant role at Manly. Unknown coaches don't usually make big signings like that. The problem for the Eels is their best player just signed for the San Fransisco 49ers. You can't replace Hayne, and in reality he left so late they couldn't even try. I think his absence may also hinder the effectiveness of Sandow, who was quietly very good last year too. Basically Hayne is the difference between making the finals and contending for the wooden spoon. But I expect he could be back in 2016 (or in French rugby) and if Foran comes over as well this will be a very exciting team.
I've concluded location is the major factor in Canberra's decades of teetering between mid-table irrelevance and complete mediocrity. Canberra never has successfully recruited from Sydney. Their one period of major success started when they signed Bennett as coach and a bunch of awesome players like Meninga, Belcher and Steve Walters from the Brisbane comp, and coupled them with some local youngsters like Daley, Clyde and Stuart. Since the Broncos came in they can't recruit and retain at all - players sign for ridiculous money, then wake up the next morning full of remorse and feeling unclean, thankful for the cooling-off period. And since AFL started to gain a bigger market share in southern NSW they can't rely on the same level of local talent to come through. I think they'll be dire this year. The best thing in the spine is Wighton, because he's an unproven talent at fullback so there is still hope for the season there. Otherwise you have a complete rookie at half, an Englishman at hooker (they always take a while to adjust, even when very good), and Blake Austin. If you asked me to nominate the player most likely to be unable to sign a deal in the NRL age 27, go to Super League and win Man of Steel, it would be Austin. That is not a compliment.
I had them penciled for last before this cocaine supply debacle. Now it's a lock. I was also going to make a lot of mangled cocaine puns, like how the Titans can sniff an opportunity out in attack and and score on the white line, but it's all too easy.
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