Predictions for 2020 first, followed by some retrospective analysis on my predictive capabilities.
NRL Predictions
1. Melbourne Storm (Last year: 1)
Before not making the Grand Final, the Storm finished minor premiers by three wins. I don’t see anyone making up that much of a difference.2. Parramatta Eels (5)
Last time I picked the Eels to come 2nd, they got the wooden spoon. That was 2018. I’m sure this time will be different.
3. Sydney Roosters (2)
The Roosters will suffer a bit from losing Cronk and Mitchell – the latter at least until they find an actual centre to play centre, rather than Crichton.
4. Cronulla Sharks (7)
The Sharks won’t lose a record-breaking five games scoring more tries but kicking less goals again. Johnson and Moylan can’t be more injured either. They will play home games at Kogarah Oval, which means locals will at least see one winning home team this season.
5. South Sydney Rabbitohs (3)
It might take him some time to adjust, but Mitchell is going to be a monster at fullback for Souths. Depth in the forwards may be the main concern.
6. Newcastle Knights (11)
The Knights will improve just by not changing their spine every few weeks. I’m also getting good vibes from the new coach O’Brien – 11 years in the Storm system plus one as assistant to the Roosters is an impressive CV.
7. Penrith Panthers (10)
I think the Panthers could go either way. A lot comes down to Cleary taking his game to the next level following Maloney’s move to the UK. Having a decent hooker in Koroisau also improves them.
8. Brisbane Broncos (8)
The Broncos are only team to have changed every player in their spine to start the season, and they still don’t seem settled on fullback (Bird seems to have moved ahead of Isaako). Combinations will take time, and Origin will take its toll on their impressive young forwards. It doesn’t get much worse for the Broncos - 8th place is basically the wooden spoon for them.
9. Canberra Raiders (4)
I think the fairytale is over for the Raiders after the unexpected Grand Final appearance in 2019. I’m very sceptical about their new English half Williams – he played at about the level of Blake Austin last UK season, and the Raiders cut him two seasons ago.
10. North Queensland Cowboys (14)
I am intrigued to see how quickly Holmes adjusts back to the NRL, and how much it lifts the Cowboys.
11. Manly Sea Eagles (6)
The Sea Eagles are starting the year with half their forward pack on the sidelines, so will be under the pump from day one. They don’t have a lot of depth. And their best hooker is in gaol.
12. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (12)
The Bulldogs defy the odds every year by appearing like the worst side on paper and then coming 11th or 12th. So basically I’m saying they look like the worst side on paper again.
13. Gold Coast Titans (16)
As with the Knights, I’m backing the new coach from a successful club to turn things around for the Titans. They just have a much bigger hill to climb.
14. Wests Tigers (9)
I think the Tigers will really struggle with having a two converted halves who have barely played top grade the last couple of season sharing the hooker role and ball distribution duties.
15. St. George-ILLAWARRA Dragons (15)
Yeah, nah.
16. New Zealand Warriors (13)
The broader Australian media tends to always pick the Warriors to come last. I tend to buck this trend and get closer to their actual performance. But this year, it’s hard to see how they get off the bottom.
* * *
Further Analysis
The last five years I’ve tried to predict the final NRL ladder before the season begins, and every year when I tally up my scores at the end of the season, I have 5 or 6 out of 16 correct*
*or close enough to count as ‘correct’
This shows I’m usually wrong, but lacks the nuance to show the seasons where I’m more wrong than others.
So I did some quick maths!
I summed the absolute difference between each teams predicted and actual performance. For example, if I predict (P) the Dragons as minor premiers and they actually (A) come 11th, then:
|P – A| = |1 – 11|= |-10|= 10(Basically a fancy way of saying if you get a negative number, you take a minus sign off, to make me appear smarter than I am.)
Apply this to all 16 teams and add the absolute values together to get a score. Lower is better. On this measure, my results are:
2015 – 66
2016 – 72
2017 – 61
2018 – 68
2019 – 68
Average: 67
In conclusion, I’m fairly consistent in my wrongness, but my best season was 2017. I got the minor premiers (Storm), the wooden spooners (Knights), Eels (4th – bold!) and Tigers (14th – maybe not so bold!) exactly correct. My worst guess was only 9 off - I predicted the Roosters to finish 11th, which seems crazy now, but they were coming off 15th in the “Pearce roots a dog” year.
Overall, from five seasons, or 80 predictions, I have 9 exactly right (1 in 2015, 4 each in 2017 and 2018).
I have also had 5 double digit blowouts. The most wrong was in 2018 – I thought the Eels would come 2nd, they came last, so only 14 off. That sounds hopeless, but in the season each side the Eels came 4th and 5th.
Over the five seasons, the team I’ve been most successful with is the Roosters. Despite them being my worst guess in 2017, I’ve otherwise got two of their minor premierships and been only 1 or 2 places off the other times.
I’ve also predicted two of the Knights wooden spoons, as its easier to get the ends right compared to the middle positions.
The teams I’ve struggled most with are the Raiders – minimum 5 positions off each season, and underrated them 4 of 5 seasons – and Rabbitohs – I got them 10 positions too high in 2016 and 11 too low in 2018.
There is no team where I’m always under or always over – so no clear bias!
In conclusion, predicting the NRL ladder is really hard.
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